That is the Apple event tag line for the event happening tomorrow at 10:00 am Cupertino time, which has only fed the rumors of an Apple tablet computer which have been swirling for years, but has only really gathered significant steam within the last several months.
Of course, any self-respecting Apple fan knows what they do right near Apple events: Make predictions! So, I’ll give out the likelihood of the major rumors and then throw out a few of my own.
Before I start, I want to throw out this warning. Any likelihood percentages are my arbitrary values only in order to give some sort of numerical value to the likelihood of items appearing. And as far as any speculation, all of it is just me thinking out loud, I have absolutely NO information that gives credence to my predictions.
The first rumor is the Big Kahuna, the 900-pound elephant in the room, the fabled Apple tablet. I, along with many in the Apple fan community, use this term rather loosely. By “tablet” I mean whatever Apple’s got up their sleeves, whether or not it resembles an actual “tablet” computer, per se. I will be interested to see what Apple is going to call it, and if this DOESN’T get unveiled tomorrow, I will be totally surprised.
However, I am more interested in what the tablet DOES, as well as the price point. I’m more interested in what Apple will do for e-books and other forms of e-publishing. I also want to see what Apple does in terms of self-publishing, ie whether Apple makes it easier or harder to self-publish your own books and/or cookbooks. And the price point for a device of this magnitude is equally important, if not more so.
My prediction for this is that Apple will enforce their own definition of “sub-$1,000″ (ie $999) for the price of the tablet. I will be totally surprised if the tablet is anything less than that. Of course, I’m not exactly believing Alex Albrecht of DiggNation on this (he’s @AlexAlbrecht on Twitter if you wish to follow him). Alex Albrecht said, to recap, that we would be “surprised at [the Apple tablet's] price tag”. If he (somehow, against all odds to the contrary) proves to be right, I will bow to him publicly on Twitter.
LIKELIHOOD OF APPLE “TABLET”: 99.9999%
The next one is one that has been sort of bandied about over the last few months, but has only gotten serious credence within the last 2-3 days, and that is the rumors of Apple + Verizon Wireless, either for the iPhone or otherwise. All I am going to say on this is (since I have many friends as well as some family on Verizon Wireless) it’s about time. Whether it’ll be immediate or not is another thing entirely. This is likely, but not half as likely as that Apple “tablet”/netbook thingy.
LIKELIHOOD OF APPLE + VERIZON: 75%
Third, we have iLife (and implied iWork) updates. Since this is an annual thing right around this time (except for 2007 and 2008), this is an almost certainty that we’ll see this, probably before the Big Kahuna is revealed. However, while I don’t have ANY idea what is in these updates, and whether it’ll be called iLife/iWork ‘10 or iLife/iWork X remains to be seen, I have some issues with iLife in particular that I sincerely hope Apple fixes. Yes, I am going to be blunt on at least one of these, but seriously, these are just plain common sense ideas.
#1, iMovie ‘09 is awful and absolutely inadequate for 99.99% of Mac users, no matter what Apple throws in there to appease the naysayers. Please Apple, for the love of all that is holy, rename Final Cut Express (or FCE) “iMovie Pro”, drop Final Cut Studio’s price, and BE DONE WITH IT! I hope they have listened to the streams of folks buying FCE even though they had iMovie already.
#2, Garageband ‘09 is great for recording podcasts, but is there any way we can get ourselves situated to record a podcast in Garageband WITHOUT using an Automator script to get our settings right the first time? Isn’t Apple’s whole philosophy “simple and elegant”? So why, then, do we have to turn off everything that makes us mental in Garageband every single time we create a new podcast (or audio recording of our voice)?! Heck, creating templates is fine, but I’d like it if Garageband knew my favourite settings with regards to my voice track automatically so I didn’t have to fix it every single time!
#3, iPhoto is great, but seriously, for those of us with rather large libraries, iPhoto is a bear to open every single time I wish to sync pics from my iPhone (which is why I love Image Capture and use it as my default). The organization features you keep adding are wonderful, Apple, PLEASE keep ‘em coming. But please, figure out a way to have iPhoto open within 5 seconds for those of us poor souls without SSDs… yet.
#4, I really feel like iDVD is totally missing something, especially if you don’t make very many DVDs (like yours truly). If you can figure out a way to give us users a way to host user-generated content on iTunes, then do it, PLEASE. Plus that rumoured iTunes LP & iTunes Extras integration that was so heavily rumoured a couple of months ago if you don’t mind, please.
#5, Another totally unused member of the iLife suite, at least for me, is iWeb. I don’t use it mainly because I don’t have MobileMe because it costs $100 a year to get a Me.com account! If Apple were to either a) fairly price MobileMe for new users, or b) offer 1 or 2 years for $0 with any new Mac purchases, that alone would make life significantly easier for all of us young Mac geeks!
All right, now that my complaining about the iLife suite is over, how about some interesting iWork suggestions, Apple?
#1, I use Pages. A LOT. I use it mainly for school work and working up documents on any spare time I have. But seriously, I would love to see some external functionality that was added to iWork 09 (namely the equation editor and the really awesome bibliography stuff) be put into the Pages app itself so we don’t have to go and purchase an additional plugin for upwards of $600 (excluding any academia discounts)! That would be truly awesome, and maybe, just maybe, could you even have a way to do especially strange mathematical symbols (like definite integrals) and other crazy mathematical stuff without having to resort to learning LaTEX (pronounced “la-tech”)? Pretty please with a Rainier cherry on top?
#2, I don’t use Numbers OR Keynote that much, but it is nice to have that functionality when I need it. One problem I’m having with Numbers when I do use it is that if I wanted to do, say, a complex mathematical formula (i.e. not “SUM” or “AVERAGE”) that I know from Excel, I would at least appreciate it deeply if that functionality was there. Could you do that, Apple? Please? And as for Keynote, I’d love to be able to create great presentations that work on Windows (whether thru iWork.com or some other solution) effortlessly and easily so that I do NOT have to create a separate PPT doc every single time I have to do a class presentation (which is becoming less & less often, but it still will have to come up from time to time). Could you do that, pretty please?
#3, I love iWork, but there are lots of things that probably SHOULD be included to make it a genuine competitor to MS Office (and justify the inevitable $79 price tag). First and foremost, how about a MS Access clone (ie database apps)? You guys just so happen to have a perfectly good one with your buddies at FileMaker, makers of Bento. Could you please integrate Bento into iWork ‘10/X please? Thanks! Secondly, there is no companion to the following MS Office apps in iWork thus far (excluding the aforementioned Access): OneNote, Project, and Visio, which is a diagramming application, specifically for the dreaded “org sheets” (Dilbert fans as well as seasoned cube dwellers know EXACTLY what I am talking about). If this were offered in iWork for Mac OS X, it would be a major coup, especially in order to get more offices onboard with the Macintosh platform.
So, after all of that, I think I’ve exhausted that particular subject.
LIKELIHOOD OF iLIFE/iWORK UPDATES: 99.9999%
Finally, the rumors have been swirling about iPhone OS 4.0. I have no idea what is going to be in it, although I would love to see a FM radio app, maybe even built into the iPod app specifically for iPhone 3G, 3GS, and 2G/3G iPod touch users (where the hardware supports such a thing). My guess is it’ll only be a sneak peek for now, with a release at WWDC 2010 in San Francisco.
LIKELIHOOD OF iPHONE OS 4.0: 100%
And now for my own predictions (good grief this is getting lengthy):
1) An iTunes update is almost inevitable at this point, maybe even iTunes 10 (or iTunes X, since Apple tends to love the ‘X’ for ‘10′ naming scheme). While I don’t know what will be in this mythical iTunes update, I do have a wishlist. First of all, a truly unified iTunes Store interface, bringing the audiobook pages and any other pages that might still be on the old interface up to speed. Secondly, I would love to see Apple totally redoing the iTunes code from the ground up in Objective-C, a lot like what they did with Snow Leopard, allowing iTunes to be 3x faster at performing certain tasks and not being such a darn resource hog, even on Mac OS X. Any other iTunes upgrades (possibly even plugins, allowing the easy creation of new plugins by iTunes users to extend the functionality of iTunes) will be icing on the cake.
2) There has been absolutely nothing made of the invitation of certain high profile gaming blogs to the 3-ring media circus that will inevitably happen tomorrow. Plus, GOG.com (a site I have evangelized heavily in the past) is touting a big, huge announcement “unlike any in the history of GOG” with a giant countdown clock that ends at 12:00 pm Warsaw, Poland time on Thursday, January 27th. Using only this incredibly circumstantial connection (and the fact that Apple rarely invites super specialized media that isn’t the Apple press without throwing them and their constituency a pretty large bone), I have come to this conclusion: GOG.com (nee CD Projekt), along with their big huge announcement on Thursday, will announce some kind of site upgrade the day before, at Apple’s big huge media event, proclaiming GOG.com games will run natively on Mac OS X without the user running Windows XP, Windows Vista, or Windows 7 OR having to use some cross-platform porting technology like, say, Cider or some such! This, in all honesty, would be HUGE to the Mac gaming community, mainly because the Mac has almost always been put down as “the Mac isn’t a good games platform” (even in the face of the Marathon trilogy, Pathways Into Darkness, Dark Castle, and many other Mac games that were largely exclusive to the Mac platform). Yes, we have gotten some pretty awful optimized ports of games as well (see GH3 & GH Aerosmith), but I feel that the Mac is an underutilized platform for playing games on, and if GOG.com (and possibly Steam) were enabled to create Mac OS X-native versions of the games that they sell WITHOUT using Cider or Wine or any number of other cross-platform porting technologies and techniques, then that would be a huge boon for Mac OS X development and spur concurrent Mac development of upcoming big-name PC titles that are truly optimized for Macs natively (as well as bring lots of other interesting items to the Mac platform, such as the astrological program Solar Fire *wink wink nudge nudge*).
3) My final predictions are ones that people will probably see coming, and that is Macintosh hardware updates. The MacBook just got a plastic unibody enclosure, so that plastic monstrosity will be staying awhile, and the Mac Mini recently got hardware upgrades, but the Apple TV has basically sat stagnant since the final MacWorld Expo Apple attended (and probably before). More folks are buying Mac Minis instead of Apple TVs, and that is mainly for the home theatre PC (or HTPC) functionality Apple rarely advertises, wherein one can do far more things on a Mac Mini than one can do on an Apple TV, hacked or no.
So, my prediction is that the AppleTV will be discontinued as of Wednesday, January 27th, 2010 and the Mac Mini will be price-dropped to be in line with what the AppleTV was priced at, like starting at $200 or something like that (and plussed with HTPC essentials like HDMI, component, and a certain “bag of hurt” that should have been on the Mini all along). This way, all the desktop Mac products can be reasonably “plussed” and price-dropped to be in line with this new strategy. On the laptop side, Apple’s been raked over the coals by these little tiny devices called “netbooks”, which have cut significant corners hardware-wise in order to be as dirt cheap as they are. Apple really should price drop its Mac notebooks to be in line with a) the MacBook Air (which is basically Apple’s “netbook” already) being priced at $499 or $599 (or both, ya never know), as well as the plastic MacBook dropping to $799 or so, with the MacBook Pro starting now at $999 (not a “pro” price at all), possibly with the 9400M AND the 9600M GT, which should have been on the lower end MB, MBA, and MBP models in the first place in my opinion.
So, we will see in roughly 24 hours if I nailed it or not. Hopefully I can do a wrapup post shortly thereafter after I’ve had a chance to disseminate and process all the information from tomorrow’s big, huge event.
Posted by bjwanlund